The major domestic equity indexes were lower on Monday, as Apple fell following a broker downgrade. Investors continued to weigh chances of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month.
Apple fell 2.2% and was the largest drag on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Rosenblatt Securities downgraded the iPhone maker’s shares to “sell” from “neutral,” and said it expected the company to face “fundamental deterioration” in the next six to 12 months.
The technology index was down 0.7%, while the healthcare index fell 0.8%, weighed down by Trump’s recent statement about an upcoming executive order to lower prescription drug prices.
Surprisingly strong jobs data on Friday has tempered hopes of a sharp rate cut at the central bank’s July 30-31 policy meeting, even as a reduction is still expected.
A week ago, the market forecast an 80.1% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, and a 19.9% chance of a 50-basis-point cut, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. In afternoon trading, the chances were 92% and 8%, respectively.
Investors might get an opportunity to gauge near-term monetary policy thinking during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony to the U.S. Congress on July 10-11. Also ahead are the central bank’s June meeting minutes, scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Market watchers are also likely to focus on the start of the second-quarter earnings season next week. Profits for S&P 500 companies are expected to have dipped 0.1% from a year ago, according to Refinitiv IBES data.
Boeing fell 1.3% and was the largest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average after Saudi Arabian budget airline flyadeal said it would not proceed with a provisional $5.9 billion order for the 737 MAX aircraft, instead opting for a fleet of Airbus A320 jets.
Symantec rose 2.4% after Jefferies said the cybersecurity firm is a “logical financial acquisition” amid reports Broadcom is in advanced talks for a deal.
Approximately 5.74 billion shares changed hands on the major domestic equity exchanges on Monday, as compared to a 6.77 billion share average over the past 20 trading days.
Inflation Outlook Rises
According to a report by the New York Fed, consumers in June lifted their inflation expectations for the first time in three months, thereby reducing pressure on central bankers to cut rates significantly to support economic momentum.
The Fed is debating within itself as to whether to cut rates given uncertainty over the various factions of our on-gong trade war and tepid inflation. Meanwhile, the markets are still expecting stimulus from the central bank in the form of lower interest rates at its July 30-31 meeting.
The Fed of New York’s survey of consumer expectations, which the Fed considers along with other data on price pressures, showed consumers’ one-year inflation outlook rising 0.2 percentage points to 2.7%. Three-year inflation expectations also ticked up to 2.7%. In May, the gauges had hit their lowest levels since at least 2017.
Consumers also showed more confidence about their personal financial situation, reporting a lower likelihood that they would lose their jobs, higher expectations of pay raises and a smaller chance of missing a debt payment. Yet nearly 39% see U.S. stock prices higher in a year’s time, the lowest level since October 2016.
The New York Fed survey is done by a third party that taps a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads.
A separate survey last month by the University of Michigan showed consumers’ one-year and five-year inflation outlook had declined over the month prior.